Open Letter to Jimmy Johnson on the Election

Jimmy,

I think this election was about the relative strength of the Republican Party in picking the right candidates, hammering the right poll-tested themes, and fighting with gloves off against every Democrat that stands in the way. It wasn't really about the popularity of their ideas. Here in Florida, all we saw about Betty Castor on TV was her face Photoshop-ed to wrap around the red letters “TAX” and some less than subtle suggestions that she supports Palestinian Islamic Jihad by not firing a professor at the first rumor that his favorite charity might be funneling some money to Palestinian militants (she instead waited for the FBI to confirm that the charity was a cover). Republicans made low punches from the get-go on favorable issues using a Cuban candidate.

I think the exit polls reflect that Americans didn't vote on policy. 20% of those dissatisfied with Bush’s job performance voted for him, as did 20% of those whose financial lots worsened over the past four years. 17% of those who've lost their jobs and over 10% of those who thought the tax cuts were a bad idea voted for Bush. A third of those who want government to help solve their problems voted for Bush, as did almost 70% of those who think that abortion should be fully or mostly legal. 19% of people who are angry and dissatisfied with bush voted for Bush. Even a quarter of gays voted for Bush.

I wouldn't take Bush's election as a mandate by any stretch. Had the newly-registered and largely Democratic youth shown up to vote like many were expecting (perhaps just hoping) we would have won. Had the GOP not gone on a voter suppression/intimidation offensive against minorities and had the same blacks not been convinced there votes would be thrown out again, I think we'd be looking at a different election result. The senate seats that were taken were largely anachronistically held anyway. Just as a Republican like Arlen Specter still holds Pennsylvania (55%+ Kerry), moderates like Daschle were still holding on to places like South Dakota (like 60%+ Bush).

Democrats needed someone with Dean’s spine and energy but with Kerry's intellect and tact. Instead we just got Kerry's intellect and tact. Kerry would have been the perfect candidate 40 years ago when eloquent yet verbose speeches were expected, but his style deeply contrasted with Bush's public good 'ole boy/straight shooter style that most people respond positively too. The simple fact is that Kerry does have deep values - he just shamefully and unsuccessfully dodged them to appeal to what his advisors told him were the moderates. People saw right through it. That 56% of the electorate thought that Kerry was only telling them what they wanted to hear speaks volumes as to why Bush won.

We lost the game, but our team still made an exceptionally strong showing considering Bush’s approval ratings just three years ago. It’s time to fire some coaches, let in some new blood, and put some leaders in the spotlight. Democrats need a few stars like Giuliani and McCain to put a public face on policy, combined with a political powerhouse like Trent Lott to push legislation internally, and a Karl Rove to manage elections. This election was won and lost because of the people involved, not the policy.

I hope you're enjoying Germany,
- James “Trey” Menefee

PS - I took some time writing this, so I'm turning it into an open letter and putting it on Treyopia.com. Thanks for asking me such a broad question :-)

>From: "James R. Johnson"
>To:
>Subject: Yo
>Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2004 22:43:43 +0100
>
>So Trey,
>
> What do you think? Thoughts on the race?
>
>
>
>Have fun in the US,
>
>
>
>Jimmy
>

"Fun" Exit Poll Facts - Voting as an Exercise in Ignorance

From CNN's Exit Poll...... 13,000+ sample size

White women voted for bush over Kerry 55-44.

African Americans voted 11% for bush.

Latinos voted 44% for bush.

60+ YOs voted 54% for bush

Income earners < $50k voted 44% for bush.

Income earners < $100k voted 49% for bush.

Union members voted 38% for bush.

Non-full-time workers voted 51% for bush.

No college degree voters voted 53% for bush.

11% of Democrats voted for bush.

Independents split 48-49 for bush/kerry.

Liberals voted 13% for bush.

1st time voters voted 46% for bush.

Jews voted 25% for bush.

Atheists voted 31% for bush.

Current and former members of the military voted 51% for bush.

Gays voted 23% for bush.

People who decided in the last 3 days voted 44% for bush.

People who disapprove of bush's performance voted 20% for bush.

People who think that we are less safe from terrorists voted 14% for bush.

People in a worse financial situation voted for 20% for bush.

People who are angry and dissatisfied with bush voted 19% for bush.

55% of the electorate believe that the Iraq war is part of the war on terrorism.

56% of the electorate believe that Kerry mostly says what people want to hear.

People who think that bush pays more attention to large corporations (54% of the electorate) voted 16% for bush.

People who are very and somewhat concerned about the availability and cost of health care voted 41% and 71% for bush (respectively).

People who believe that abortion should be 'always' legal voted 25% for bush.

People who believe that abortion should be mostly legal voted 38% for bush.

People who believe that same-sex couples should legally marry (25%) of the electorate) voted 22% for bush.

People who believe that same-sex couple should have civil unions (35% of the electorate) voted 52% vote bush.

10% of former Gore voters voted for bush (as opposed to only 11% of 2000 bush voters voting for Kerry.)

People who believe that the economy is not good or poor voted 20% for bush.

53% of the electorate did not trust Kerry to handle the economy.

People who don't believe that the US is going in the right direction(46%) voted 12% for bush.

People who want the government to do more to solve our problems (46%) voted 33% for bush.

People who think that the bush tax cuts were bad for the economy (32%) voted 7% for bush.

People who have lost a job (17%) voted 35% for bush.

On Iraq and Chechnya

Iraq is a failed state now. Security is consistently ranked the highest priority for voters in this election and that failure is the biggest threat to our security today. Though most Democrats resisted the invasion in the first place, we are there now and if we fail to rebuild the country a new generation of terrorist will plague us in ways that should be kept only in the realm of Hollywood movies. It is fast becoming what Afghanistan was twenty years ago when the disgruntled and aimless youth of Middle East found cause in defeating a foreign aggressor and later banded together to blow up embassies, barracks, refueling warships and finally punched a hole in the Manhattan skyline.

Contrary to Bush’s narrow-minded view, we will fail by getting stuck in Iraq just as much we will fail if we make a hasty withdrawal. Bush has openly advocated the endless attrition warfare policies of Russia and Israel, owners of the two bloodiest quagmires on the planet – Chechnya and Palestine. Wake up. It’s not working. Palestine has resisted occupation sense 1967. Chechnya has been a sea of blood for a decade now. It won’t work in Iraq. It’s obviously not working now. Things are horrible and getting worse.

John Kerry will not “cut and run,” but he won’t be setting a policy to ensure that we stay in Iraq for a decade to come. Though both candidates fully support training Iraqi’s to rescue their own country, they will not be able to secure their country from the insurgents in a timely manner. Kerry advocates bringing the allies back to the table: yes, that includes the French and Germans. The Germans have already signaled that though reluctant, they can be talked into sending troops. Though multi-lateralizing Iraq isn’t a magic pill it should bring the benefit of new ideas, extra hands, and trust-building checks and balances against any one occupier’s interests that are absent now.

The simple fact is we need all the help we can get to make the streets of Iraq safe enough to walk and vote in. We have paid a heavy cost for Bush’s arrogance and overconfidence. Though the US military today is the most professional and respected armed force in the world, we do not have an Army built for occupation. The militaries of Europe stand second only to our own in ability and have trained for half a century to fight alongside us. A failed Iraq perhaps even a more ominous cloud for them than us – they’re much closer. We will have to pay the price for their support. We will have to accept some input and may even hand many of our puppet-string powers in Iraq, like hand-picking former CIA operatives as the Prime Minister, over to the United Nations. This alternative seems far better than the alternative of Iraq becoming our own Chechnya.

Florida Polls

Article I wrote about one of my professors, Dr. Matt Corrigan.
_____

UNF students will once again have giant impress on a Presidential election when the head to the polls Tuesday, November 2. Florida’s importance as a battleground state has happened because even though the nation as a whole is evenly divided over the candidates, most states have a solid lead with one candidate or the other. The battle for this election is being fought where the state will be won with a few thousand or even a few hundred votes. After the recount battle Florida’s official vote count came out to a 537 lead for Bush, granting him all 27 Electoral Votes and winning him the election.

At the trenches in measuring public opinion in Florida this time around is UNF’s own Dr. Matt Corrigan. Working through the Public Opinion Research Laboratory, Corrigan has conducted a recent state-wide poll October 10th through the 15th that was referenced in USA Today and other national media outlets.

The result of Corrigan’s polling showed a one point lead for Kerry, 45%, but is nonetheless a statistical dead heat because of a 4% margin of error. Ralph Nader polled at 2%, a number equivalent to what he won in 2000.

The questions went beyond a presidential straw poll. “15% to 20% identified themselves as new voters,” likely because of age or a recent move. “Accordingly, hundreds of thousands of new voters may participate in Florida on Election Day.” At UNF alone, over a thousand students have been registered on campus this fall semester. This dynamic gives an edge of even more uncertainty.

“Voters overwhelmingly approve of the job that the federal government and the state government of Florida did in handling hurricane relief effort,” the study concluded. Despite this, 49% approve of President Bush’s job performance while 48% disapprove. 46% approve of how the president is handling Iraq and 50% disapprove.

The most important finding to Corrigan was that 26% of those polled felt that the other side was “sinful,” not just wrong. “This makes it extremely difficult to compromise, something that’s very important in a democracy,” Corrigan added. This number crossed ethnic, party, and racial lines.