Florida Polls

Article I wrote about one of my professors, Dr. Matt Corrigan.
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UNF students will once again have giant impress on a Presidential election when the head to the polls Tuesday, November 2. Florida’s importance as a battleground state has happened because even though the nation as a whole is evenly divided over the candidates, most states have a solid lead with one candidate or the other. The battle for this election is being fought where the state will be won with a few thousand or even a few hundred votes. After the recount battle Florida’s official vote count came out to a 537 lead for Bush, granting him all 27 Electoral Votes and winning him the election.

At the trenches in measuring public opinion in Florida this time around is UNF’s own Dr. Matt Corrigan. Working through the Public Opinion Research Laboratory, Corrigan has conducted a recent state-wide poll October 10th through the 15th that was referenced in USA Today and other national media outlets.

The result of Corrigan’s polling showed a one point lead for Kerry, 45%, but is nonetheless a statistical dead heat because of a 4% margin of error. Ralph Nader polled at 2%, a number equivalent to what he won in 2000.

The questions went beyond a presidential straw poll. “15% to 20% identified themselves as new voters,” likely because of age or a recent move. “Accordingly, hundreds of thousands of new voters may participate in Florida on Election Day.” At UNF alone, over a thousand students have been registered on campus this fall semester. This dynamic gives an edge of even more uncertainty.

“Voters overwhelmingly approve of the job that the federal government and the state government of Florida did in handling hurricane relief effort,” the study concluded. Despite this, 49% approve of President Bush’s job performance while 48% disapprove. 46% approve of how the president is handling Iraq and 50% disapprove.

The most important finding to Corrigan was that 26% of those polled felt that the other side was “sinful,” not just wrong. “This makes it extremely difficult to compromise, something that’s very important in a democracy,” Corrigan added. This number crossed ethnic, party, and racial lines.