Debate Summary

From the very beginning of the campaign Kerry needed to get Bush on the defensive. It just wasn’t happening. In early polling over the summer, all the leads Kerry had were directly related to Bush’s incredibly low job performance numbers related to the economy and the faltering security in Iraq – including the loss of Fallujah to the insurgents.

Conservatives, however, delivered a near-fatal blow to Kerry after the convention. Following Karl Rove’s rule that you attack your enemy where he is strongest, not where he is weakest Swiftboat Veteran’s for Truth put out ad’s questioning the validity of Kerry’s war record. This effectively nulled Kerry’s acclaimed first-hand understanding of how foreign policy works and liberals claims that Bush got preferential treatment by being placed in the Texas Air National Guard. “Stop talking about Vietnam,” was Clinton’s final advice on the matter.

This coupled with claims of being a “flip flopper” left Kerry on the defensive during the past month. After the Republican convention, when Bush was able to get out his message while Kerry was still on the defensive, Bush saw a considerable bounce – both his numbers went up among undecided’s and Kerry’s numbers fell.

The first debate put an end to that. Simply put, Kerry was at his absolute best and Bush was at nearly his worst. Kerry spoke eloquently, forcefully, and yet did this without the normal verbosity campaign observers are used to. In fact, he never went over his time limit. Bush, on the other hand, stammered and stumbled his way though the debate. When Kerry spoke, Bush made childish faces. Kerry often just leaned slightly with a coy smile and watched Bush stumble around. Bush filled every sentence with “umm”, blank spaces, and at least one blank stare after a question that lasted nearly five seconds. He also snapped on the Jim Lehrer, “Let me finish!” when his time ran out because of too much white space (and gray, I suppose) between his words.

Most important, it seemed like Kerry finally had Bush on the defensive. Bush’s only real criticism of Kerry was the persistent flip-flopper accusation and claiming that that the junior Senator didn’t know how world politics really worked. Kerry didn’t defend himself against the flip-flopper accusation until nearly an hour into the debate - close enough towards the end so that viewers would remember it more clearly. More often than not, he would spend a few short words rebutting before launching into Bush again. Bush, however, was obviously irked and spent what seemed like most of his time defending his foreign policy decisions.

As I see it, the election comes down like this: Kerry doesn’t have enough personnel charm or a strong enough record to win the election as a referendum on his own strengths. The only way that he can win is by making the election about Bush, a referendum on the Presidents record. Bush’s job-approval ratings have been low enough to make that a viable winning strategy for Kerry. In defense, the Bush campaign team has attacked Kerry to make him out to be an even less viable option than the sitting President – a man without a moral background or the political consistency to lead the nation through troubled times. As such, Bush wants to make this election about Kerry. If Kerry can keep Bush on the defensive and effortlessly and effectively gloss over his own shortcomings as he did during the debate, it looks like the election will be his to lose.